Float more boats
On 2027, Google Earth, and the need for the United States to put more hulls in the water even if it costs a lot of money
The US Navy is currently operating with two "strategic ends" on the books: "1) Readiness for the possibility of war with the People's Republic of China by 2027, and 2) Enhancing long-term advantage". It's not a secret plan: That's the published policy. And they've chosen 2027 as a target because that's what the Communist Party of China says is its target for surpassing us in war.
■ Here, though, is the deeply unsettling takeaway from the Navy's "Navigation Plan": "The PRC's defense industrial base is on a wartime footing, including the world's largest shipbuilding capacity now at the hands of the PLAN" [People's Liberation Army Navy].
■ The United States, by contrast, has almost negligible active shipbuilding capacity and has turned away from shipbuilding as a strategic priority. We can change course, but that will require considerable investments in workforce development and production processes.
■ It would also require budgetary commitments from Congress. Big ones. For many years to come. At a time when preparatory investments aren't especially popular and huge deficits are already the norm ($1.8 trillion this fiscal year!).
■ This is a problem that some observers have seen coming for quite a while. And unless we take it seriously now, the amount of future catching-up to be required will only compound.
■ The world is very big and the oceans cover most of it. Spin the globe on Google Earth sometime and see how much of it can only be criss-crossed by long-distance aircraft or patrolled by a blue-water navy. In the absence of guaranteed world peace, stability, and liberalization for a century to come, America needs to maintain, preserve, and enhance the world's biggest navy. Circumstances don't offer us a viable alternative choice.
If we want to float more boats in any reasonable timeframe, the answer is not developing a US workforce. It’s buying them from allies who already know how to build ships quickly at reasonable cost. Meanwhile, repeal the Jones Act and see if an internationally-competitive US shipbuilding industry can emerge from the ruins of a century of protection.