Skate to where the puck is going to be
On minding our own business, workplace creativity, and why any talk about jobs needs to observe a very important 7-to-1 ratio
The Financial Times has put a spotlight on a curious paradox: some 80% of Americans seem to think that the country "would be better off if more Americans worked in manufacturing", while only 26% of people currently working outside the manufacturing sector believe that they, personally, would be better off working in manufacturing. The numbers come from a 2024 survey by the Cato Institute.
■ Things never seem to go particularly well when Americans start trying to think of ways to tell one another what to do without committing themselves to doing the same. The mythical beliefs around manufacturing jobs are a flagship example.
■ If we want to make people in 2025 economically better off, then we need to base our priorities and policy-making on 2025 realities rather than the imaginary world of 1955. There are great jobs available in manufacturing today, to be sure. But they are not for losers or the lazy; the good manufacturing jobs belong to people who can adapt and learn at work. Creativity and problem-solving are high-reward activities on the shop floor just like they are in an architectural firm.
■ But having an advanced economy means having a lot of workers in the service sector -- the ratio is roughly seven service-sector workers to one manufacturing-sector worker. One isn't better than the other, but one vastly outnumbers the other.
■ Good policies have to reflect that ratio, rather than ignoring it. The preponderance of job-training and job-development efforts should focus on the service sector, because that's where the work is -- and we have 75 years of data saying that's where the work is going to stay.
