The first Atlantic hurricane of the season is rapidly intensifying as it heads towards the Florida and Alabama coastline. Since it seems that no news story is covered without an artificial-intelligence angle, it’s no surprise that stories are already being written about how AI forecast models have fared in predicting this storm path.
■ It’s a good illustration of the kind of thing we should expect computer models to be good at doing: Running lots of simulations based upon lots of past data to develop a probabilistic look at outcomes. Just like natural selection, this kind of model shines when it’s able to run experiments over and over and over again, then compare those experiments with verifiable results from the real world. Repeat more of what works, kill off what doesn’t.
■ It also speaks to the value of institutions like the National Hurricane Center. Some things are worthy public goods, decidedly worth paying for out of the public till, and reliable weather forecasting information is high on that list -- especially where conditions can threaten life or property. Having a country prosperous enough to afford a world-class forecasting agency ought to be a point of significant pride.
■ Accountability is hugely important whenever the public funds public goods, and to its significant credit, the National Hurricane Center publishes verification data showing a very clear and sustained long-term trend towards greater forecast accuracy. That’s what we should be able to expect from responsible adults in all walks of life: Continuous improvement both in the state of the art and in the routine application of professional skill.
■ The arrival of new tools to help with forecasting ought to be welcomed, insofar as those tools can be integrated accountably with the existing profession and its established practices and procedures. As promising new technologies emerge, thoughtful integration, not disruption, ought to be the guiding objective.