The conflicted road ahead

On expected value equations, gray zones, and why there's a good chance we'll still be on the receiving end of trouble no matter how soon the fighting in Iran comes to an end

Despite public proclamations that the conflict with Iran will be over “very soon”, the public should be clear-eyed about the extremely high probability that a heightened level of trouble is here to stay for no short duration. Two things make this likely.

■ The first is that the new supreme leader of Iran is the son of the man just killed. This indicates not just that the power structure left behind is choosing continuity, but that it is likely to view the current conflict as existential -- a fight for its very survival.

■ That changes the expected-value equation for what kinds and degrees of conflict the regime will be willing to undertake, probably increasing their risk tolerance by a fair amount. It’s not all that different from gambling for resurrection.

■ The second reason to expect more trouble ahead is that Iran already showed significant willingness to use tools of gray-zone conflict before its conventional military forces came under substantial attack. As conventional forces get depleted, they take time to rebuild. Weapons of cyberwarfare and other asymmetrical tools of force aren’t as subject to depletion, making them the closest weapons at hand.

■ Overall, this is bad news. Whether the conventional fighting calms down or not, the American public ought to be prepared to expect less-conventional forms of conflict to be around and causing trouble for a fair while to come.