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What's it going to take?

On high cholesterol, defense spending, and a grave warning from the chief of NATO

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Brian Gongol
Dec 15, 2024

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NATO's secretary-general wants a message to go to the leaders of European countries: "Tell them they need to spend more on defense so that we can continue to live in peace, tell them that security matters more than anything". In the words of Ulrike Franke, "No one wants to hear this. No one wants to say this. But it's crucial that this becomes part of the conversation."

â–  It's true; nobody wants to be told to spend lots more money on tools they hope will go unused. But it's a paradoxical relationship: Build up a lot of weapons, and (at least in one dynamic) the odds of having to use them go down. Fail to armor up raises the odds that a vicious adversary will take advantage of the relative weakness.

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â–  "We are not ready for what is coming our way in four to five years. Danger is moving towards us at full speed," says Mark Rutte, the secretary-general. Some might dismiss his alarm because he has an incentive to encourage preparedness. But we shouldn't discount his warning any more than we might ignore the advice of a cardiologist worried about a patient whose cholesterol is on the rise.

â–  What's it going to take to get the most sluggish partners to wake up to the threat, a thousand-day land war in Europe?

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