The Soviet Union invaded Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia in 1940 and oppressed them as occupied countries for 51 years. Considering the impact of World War II, it’s hard to imagine what credible options the United States and other countries might have had to stand against the invasion at the time (or in the immediate post-war period), but there’s really no doubt that the occupation of the Baltic countries permanently scarred them -- which explains why they are such outspoken allies of Ukraine in its current efforts to repel Russian invasion.
■ Some costs in the short run are inescapable as investments in long-run peace and security. As Kaja Kallas, the former Estonian prime minister and current chief diplomat for the EU noted, “Suspending sanctions on Russian diesel provides Moscow with more revenues to wage war. This is not the time to ease pressure on Russia, and Europe won’t.”
■ High fuel prices are of course partially the result of effective targeting of Russian refineries by Ukraine’s impressive drone operations. It’s not the only factor, but it matters. To the extent that diesel prices today are higher because of those operations, the only rational way to view the picture is that Ukraine is simply doing to Russia what the Baltic countries would have done to the Soviet Union in 1940, had they the technology or the knowledge of what was to come.
■ A ceasefire under the present status quo needs to be evaluated as if it sets up a 50-year Russian occupation of some Ukrainian territory, because that’s the only relevant historical precedent. That’s not a just or fair deal, and anyone making the claim that such a deal should prevail is a dupe or an ally of evil.
■ Plenty of leaders know that vigorous solidarity with Ukraine is the only option for long-term peace in Europe. High diesel prices hurt right now. But 50-year occupations hurt much more, and for far longer.